The Wynn Race and Sports Book in Las Vegas currently has American Pharoah at 12-1 to win the 2015 Kentucky Derby. That is really something-he hasn’t even made it to the starting gate. It went down from 40-1 after Texas Red, who American Pharaoh beat by over 5 lengths in the Grade 1 Frontrunner at Santa Anita, went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile impressively while he sat out injured. American Pharoah would have been a big favorite in the race because of 2 very impressive Grade One scores before it. His trainer, Bob Baffert, is on record stating that this horse is a freak talent. He could easily remain undefeated leading up to the Run For The Roses and may be a very short price on Derby day. When I see a talent like this as a 2-year-old the first thing I do is to study their pedigree to see if they can get the 1 and 1/4 mile Derby distance. After looking at American Pharoah’s bloodlines, his ability to do this in my eyes is in doubt. Let’s look at his pedigree and see why I question him.
When looking at a horse’s bloodlines, I look at the male (sire) side to see a horse’s speed and brilliance and the female (dam) side to see their class and stamina.
American Pharoah’s was a $300,000 yearling. His sire is Pioneerof the Nile. On the race track Pioneerof the Nile earned over 1.5 million dollars, winning 5 times from 10 starts. He showed his signs of brilliance on the track by winning the Santa Anita Derby and finishing second behind Mine That Bird in the 2009 Kentucky Derby. As a stallion, Pioneerof the Nile is the leading sophomore sire in 2014. He had runners in two of the three legs of the Triple Crown this past year. And his offspring are showing tremendous amounts of speed and brilliance, including American Pharoah, Cairo Price and Social Inclusion. Pioneerof the Nile has a 7.1 AWD (Average Winning Distance) which is adequate for a Kentucky Derby sire. He has sired winners at a 1 1/16 miles on dirt and at 1 1/8 miles on turf. American Pharoah’s 2nd sire is Empire Maker. He earned close to 2 million dollars on the track and won the Wood Memorial, the Florida Derby and the Belmont Stakes. As a sire, Empire Maker puts endurance in his progeny. A couple of his top ones were Bodemeister and Royal Delta. His 3rd sire is Unbridled, who was the 3 year old champion in 1990 by winning both the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders’ Cup Classic in the same year. He was also a very successful sire; another one who passed stamina down to his offspring. During his stud career he sired 10 Grade 1 winners, 4 classic winners, and 3 Eclipse Award winners. American Pharoah gets a bunch of brilliance from his sire line, and it has shown in his performance at two.
For me, it is in looking at American Pharoah’s distaff family where it gets dicey when envisioning his ability to handle the distance of the Kentucky Derby.
American Pharoah’s dam is Littleprincessemma. She ran unplaced in two starts sprinting at 2. She is a half sister to grade II winner Storm Wolf (7 furlongs) and to Misty Rosette, who took the Old Hat Stakes (gr. III)(6 furlongs) and ran third in the Darley Test Stakes (gr. I, 1 mile). His granddam, Exclusive Rosette, was a stakes winning sprinter. American Pharoah’s third and fourth dams also raced exclusively in sprints, with neither able to win a race. His 5th dam, Miami Mood, won stakes races at 3 and 4. American Pharoah’s dam line leans heavily towards speed and does not have an abundance of class either.
You look at a horse’s dam sire line to find the greatest influences of stamina and endurance. American Pharoah’s dam sire is Yankee Gentleman. He was a stakes winning sprinter on the race track. In the breeding shed he has been a leading sire in Louisiana with 119 stakes winners. He only has 3 stakes winners as a dam sire though. He also has an AWD of 6.31, which is very low when it comes to giving off stamina to his offspring. His dad, Storm Cat, had a brief racing career winning the Grade One Young American Stakes at 1 1/16 miles. Storm Cat was a sire of a lifetime, but only once produced a horse who won a Triple Crown race (Tabasco Cat, 1994 Preakness and Belmont Stakes). In fact, thus far the only U.S. classic victory for a horse sired by a son or grandson of Storm Cat is that achieved by Shackleford in the 2011 Preakness. And as great a broodmare sire Storm Cat has been, he has yet to produce a Triple Crown winner here as well. I find it surprising that he has done so poorly as a Triple Crown sire and broodmare sire since he was bred to only the crème de la crème of broodmares for most of his 21 years at stud. It seems the “typical” Storm Cat sons have tendencies of speed and early maturity. American Pharoah’s 3rd dam sire, Storm Bird, was a champion 2-year-old but won at lengths of only 7 furlongs. American Pharoah’s dam sire line leaves questions as well regarding his ability to get the Derby distance.
American Pharoah no doubt has shown great ability while performing at 2. He has won impressively at distances up to a mile and a sixteenth. As of now he appears to be the top juvenile in the country, even after missing the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile race. But as we all know, being a superstar at two does not often lead to a win in the Kentucky Derby. American Pharoah has a dosage index of 4.33. This would be an extremely high one for a horse to win the Kentucky Derby. Also, his dosage profile is 2-3-3-0-0. There are only 3 points in the classic area while no points in either solid or professional ones(these three areas show a propensity for stamina). In comparison, California Chrome has a 3.40 DI with a 7-5-10-0-0 dosage profile while Smarty Jones had a 3.29 DI and a dosage profile of 10-7-12-1-0. Both of these horses were questioned about having a Kentucky Derby winning pedigree and were said by many to have outrun there pedigree. While American Pharoah does get brilliance from the male side of his pedigree, he is lacking endurance from his distaff family. This leads me to overall question his capabilities to win the Kentucky Derby. Of course he is another horse who can outrun his pedigree, but with the distance questions I wouldn’t be betting on him in the Derby. I was burned once before a while ago betting a horse (High Fly) who had potential distance limitations. After that I promised myself that I wouldn’t throw money at horses who had questionable pedigrees coming into the race. And the way I see it, American Pharoah does.
Regal Bloodlines 
So, who DO you like? A list of 3 or 4 promising 2 yo’s would suffice if I happen to find myself in Las Vegas.
Thank you in advance.
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Future bets are not exactly my play-too much risk. I do like I Spent It to become a good three year old. Very nice pedigree.
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Without having the expertise you possess, I had already come to similar conclusions. However, I really do not understand why it is the dam’s side which provides the stamina and the sire’s side to show speed and brilliance. I see no reaon genetically other than the possibility of sex linked traits like heart size that it would depend on which sex bestowed the genes for that trait in the offspring.
I noticed that there are many similarities in the breeding of American Pharoah and Bodemeister. Bodemeister is by Empire Maker and American Pharoah by son of Empire Maker. On the dam’s side, Bodemeister is by a daughter of Storm Cat and AP is by a daughter of a son of Storm Cat. Yankee Gentleman showed even less stamina on the race track than Storm Cat did and has a lower AWD. So AP is similar to Bodemeister but has even less of a stamina influence. I expect Baffert to order his jock to send AP and try to hold it all the way which Bodemeister almost did. Baffert claims he does not confuse his jocks by giving instructions which is probably a defense for the way Bayern intentionally, in my opinion, crashed into the horses to his inside and then cut them off in the BC Classic. It did work to send War Emblem and this time he has the outstanding Dortmund to pick up the pieces if it does not succeed with AP..
I hope you will you use your great accumen to look into Dortmund’s potential for handling the Derby distance. I tend to think he can do it but would like to know what you think.
Thank you for your great articles on regalbloodlines.com.
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What do you think of American Pharoah now?
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I think he is a freak who has outrun his pedigree and proved me wrong. I wish I bet him. He has shown that he is a 1 1/4 mile horse whose sire line of Pioneerof the Nile, Empire Maker, and Unbridled have given him a bunch of stamina influence, because his distaff side is speed oriented. His come home times have been rather slow, so he’s been able to conserve enough energy to get the distance of his races and win. On paper, 1 1/2 miles seems like a stretch, but if he’s given an easy lead, he may be able to get to the finish line first, if the pace is slow and the time for the race is slow (like this year’s Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes), and like the past 10 years for the Belmont Stakes. Many of the horses in the race are lacking 12 Furlong pedigrees, given that American breeders have bred more and more for speed. I think American Pharoah is an exceptional horse with great talent which has trumped his pedigree.
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Bold Ruler logically (based on progeny and genetics, his heart was not weighed) was a Large Heart Gene Carrier, Secretariat’s heart weighed 22lbs and his progeny verifies he was a Large Heart Gene Carrier. American Pharoah’s mother and father were both descendants from Bold Ruler and Secretariat.
It is thought that the Large Heart Gene is sex-linked to the X Chromosome. So the Xh gene is passed to a female. You could have a female with Xh and Xh which would mean all her offspring would carry the Large Heart Gene. Or if you had a female with Xh and X, there would be a 50% chance that each female offspring would carry the Xh gene. Any male that had the Xh Large Heart Gene would pass this to 100% of their female offspring and their male offspring would not inherit the Large Heart Gene. Looking at the 5 generation pedigree of public record for Pioneer of the Nile and Littleprincessemma and their blood lines, It appears that American Pharoah has a great chance to have the Large Heart Gene.
American Pharoah is not a FREAK ACCIDENT. Its Genetics.
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