Take Charge Brandi was the big shocker at this year’s Breeders’ Cup, winning at odds of 62-1 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Here is a video of her gate to wire performance:
She became the third largest win payout in Breeders’ Cup history. No one seemed to be able to get past her low speed figures, her race record and her recent form. But by peeling back the onion you see clues as to why she ended up in the winner’s circle. Here’s a list of things that were overlooked in regards to Take Charge Brandi’s chances in the race and why her future looks promising moving forward.
1. Pedigree
Studying a 2-yeear-old’s pedigree is a strong handicapping angle and Take Charge Brandi had probably the strongest one in the field. Her dam, Charming, was a 3.2 million dollar purchase at the 2006 Keenland September sale. She is a half sister to 2013 Travers Stakes winner and 3 year old Horse of the Year Will Take Charge. Her granddam, Take Charge Lady, played the part on the race track where she earned just under 2.5 million dollars. She won 11 races (8 Graded) from 22 starts and earned a dozen triple digit Beyer Speed Figures as well. Take Charge Lady was a superstar in the breeding shed also. She produced 2 Grade One winners and was selected as the 2013 Kentucky Broodmare of the Year. Take Charge Brandi’s sire is Giants Causeway. On the track he had 9 victories and 4 seconds from 13 starts, winning from distances of 6 furlongs to 10.4 furlongs. He lost by a neck to Tiznow in a thrilling edition of the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2000. Off the track Giants Causeway was the leading sire in North America in 2009-2010 and in 2012 and has now sired 29 Grade One winners worldwide. Steve Roman’s data indicates that Giant’s Causeway is indeed a pre-potent sire of Classic stamina which is promising towards Take Charge Brandi’s ability to run longer distances. And his dad, Storm Cat, gave her that great 2-year-old speed that was on display at Santa Anita. Finally, her dam sire is Seeking The Gold, a horse who bankrolled just under 2.5 million dollars on the track and lost to Alysheba by a neck in the 1988 Breeders’ Cup Championship. Another top notch sire, Seeking The Gold produced 85 stakes winners (18 Grade 1 winners), 4 Breeders’ Cup Champions and two Eclipse Champions.
2. Trainer
Take Charge Brandi has Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas in her corner. Lukas has now won 20 Breeders’ Cup races, holds the record for the most Triple Crown race wins, and his horses have won 28 Eclipse Championships. Out of his 20 Breeders’ Cup victories, 13 have come with 2-year-olds. If ever there was a trainer with an eye for a 2-year-old, it’s D. Wayne Lukas. And he had always been high on Take Charge Brandi. This is what he said of her after she broke her maiden at Churchill Downs, “Her maiden victory was so professional that if you watched the video you might have thought you were watching a 4 year old filly out there.”
3. Running on the lead:
In Take Charge Brandi’s first race she won in gate-to-wire fashion. In the Grade 3 Schuylerville Stakes at Saratoga, she bolted for the lead and went stride for stride with 1-5 favorite Fashion Plate before getting passed late. In her next 2 races, both graded, she was forced to rate behind the leaders and finished 5th both times and over 10 lengths off the lead. Then, in the Grade One Alcibiades at Keenland, she gunned for the lead but seemed to tire down the stretch and finished a weakened eighth. What I felt, though, was that her only chance in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile would be to get the lead and try to take them as far as she could go. The Santa Anita dirt track is known to help speedy types and it was playing particularly fast after the first three races of the day. After I read in my DRF program that there was a closer bias at Keenland in the Alcibiades, I sensed that her front running tactics might suit her well in this race. And by looking at the results they most certainly did.
4. Jockey Change:
D. Wayne Lukas gave the mount to Victor Espinoza for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. I’ve always felt that Victor is a great front-running jockey, having seen him on board the likes of War Emblem, Tin Man and California Chrome. Victor also noticed something while guiding her down the home stretch: she didn’t like the whip. He said this after the race,” “Turning for home, I discovered something about her, that she doesn’t like to be hit with the whip. She put her ears back and she completely feels like she’s going to stop.” It takes an experienced and intuitive jockey to take such quick notice of these things and change his tactics, and this helped Take Charge Brandi cruise home to victory.
5. Experience Edge:
Take Charge Brandi leading up to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies had competed in five races at three different race tracks. 4 of them had been Graded. Only Danette had run in that many races, but she had yet to break her maiden and 4 of them had been on polytrack. Angela Renee was the only other filly to had run in four races. So besides these two, you were looking at 2-year-olds that hadn’t run in more than 3 races. This was a big edge for Take Charge Brandi, especially since it was a race for 2-year-olds where experience is of upmost importance.
6. The Field:
When looking at this field on race day, I had a real tough time coming up with a winner. In my eyes there were no real standouts in the field. The morning line favorite, Angela Renee, was 3-1 and she finished 6 lengths behind Bye the Moon in the G1 Spinaway Stakes. The second choice,Conquest Eclipse, was at 4-1 and then three other fillies were at 6-1 odds. Take Charge Brandi had also kept the best company out of all of these two-year-olds. Finally, the race lacked a strong pace to it-something Take Charge Brandi took advantage of.
So as you can see Take Charge Brandi’s poor form before the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies was partially due to Lukas trying to get her to rate and also because of a strong closer bias at Keenland. In terms of her low Beyer Speed Figures, which were some 15 to 20 points below many of the horses in the race, one can always say that you have to look at other factors when handicapping a race. To add to this, D. Wayne Lukas said this about Beyer Speed Figures in 2012, “Throw ’em out. They’re as obsolete as high-button shoes. If you go by the Beyer numbers, you’re never going to pick a winner. They’re just too unpredictable. I don’t have any confidence in them, and I don’t know any other trainer who does.” Lukas then singled out a reporter and cried, “If the Beyers were any good, you wouldn’t be standing there, with a 39-cent pen, taking notes. You’d be off somewhere sipping Pina Coladas.”
In my eyes the future looks bright for Take Charge Brandi as she moves in to her three year old season. Being by Giant’s Causeway tells me that the addition of distance should not be of concern. She seems to have settled in to a style of racing which suits her well, although being a one dimensional speed horse can be a detriment to winning. She has also run well at 3 different race courses, including a victory in her maiden win at Churchill Downs. While it appears that no one saw her winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, I hope by reading this article I have shed light on the fact that her win was not just a fluke. Take Charge Brandi’s royal pedigree was not to be denied.
Regal Bloodlines 