Here are a few little snippets I’ve read about Midnight Lucky: “Special”, “Mighty”, “Crushed Foes”, “Had Observers in Awe”, and “Obliterated the Competition”. Trainer Bob Baffert has said, “Going a mile or less, this filly is as good as any I have ever had”. Midnight Lucky has raced once this year in the beginning of May and since then has been pointed to The Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint at Santa Anita with no races in between. Mizdirection is the only horse I can think of who has been able to handle that kind of layoff and win a Breeders’ Cup Championship. She did it twice. Yes, Midnight Lucky won a Grade 1 after a year layoff in the Humana Distaff. But that was in May. At this point of the season these horses have been battle tested throughout the entire year. Many have been pointed to this race for some time in hopes for a peak performance. Midnight Lucky has had only seven published workouts thus far in preparation for this race. Is she talented enough to drop in for this event, off one race in 17 months and against some of the best female sprinters in the world, and win a Breeders’ Cup Championship? She may be.
Racing Career to Date:
In Midnight Lucky’s 5 race career she has shown an extreme level of brilliance in all but one of them. She broke her maiden at first asking, winning very impressively by 7 1/4 lengths and in the process earning a 100 Beyer Speed Figure. She then went on to dominant her opponents again, winning the Sunland Park Oaks by 8 lengths in a track record time. In her only poor performance of her career she finished 5th in the Kentucky Oaks, a race where she had to set very fast fractions because of her inside post. Three and a half weeks later she won the Grade One Acorn Stakes at Belmont Park by 6 1/4 lengths over a very nice filly in Close Hatches. She was then sidelined by injury for almost a year when she was dropped in to deep waters in the Grade One 7 furlong Humana Distaff at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby weekend. Midnight Lucky responded with a scintillating performance; a wire to wire victory by 4 1/2 lengths where she beat Judy the Beauty (runner up by 1/2 lengths in the 2013 Filly & Mare Sprint) and Iotapa (2 Grade One wins next two out). Here is a video of that performance:
Now let’s take a look at her bloodlines and see what to make of them.
Pedigree:
Midnite Lucky was a $220,000 purchase at the FTSAUG 2011 sale. She is sired by the great sprinter Midnight Lute. Also trained by Bob Baffert, he was the first horse to ever win back-to-back Breeders’ Cup Sprint Championships. Midnight Lute posted the highest Beyer Speed Figure ever by a sprinter (124) and also earned over 2.5 million dollars on the track. What is of note here is that in his 2008 campaign he was sidelined with an injury for 9 months. He returned to racing for a Breeders’ Cup prep in the Grade 2 Pat O’ Brien Handicap and finished 10th. A month later he surprised many by winning his 2nd Breeders’ Cup Sprint Title. This is a similar set of circumstances to what his daughter is attempting to do except she didn’t get a prep race before her Breeders’ Cup race. Midnight Lute has 13 stakes winners in his young stallion career to date. He ranked second as a 2nd crop sire and ranks third as a 3rd crop sire this year. Other than Midnight Lucky, his top offspring have been Mylute (Multiple Graded Placed, 5th Kentucky Derby), Shakin it Up (G1 and 2XG2 winner), Midnight Aria (winner 1 mile and 1/4 Queen’s Plate) and Governor Charlie (broke track record in grade 3 Sunland Derby, 8th Preakness). As you can see Midnite Lute gets runners at all distances. This is because he probably could have gone 2 turns himself but was limited by breathing problems. His dad, Real Quiet, came four inches from winning the Triple Crown in the Belmont Stakes. He was the 1998 Champion 3 Year Old Colt. As a sire, he was not a prolific one, giving off just two horses other than Midnight Lute who had earnings of over $750,000 (Sunward Run and Pussycat Doll). Real Quiet has no sons standing at stud of note other than Midnight Lute. By looking at her sire line you can obviously see a level of brilliance through race performance.
Midnight Lucky’s dam Citiview never won a race but is a full sister to sprinter Hookedonthefeelin (Grade 1 La Brea and Grade 2 Landaluce winner). Hookedonthefeelin is the dam of Grade 1 winning sprinters Pussycat Doll and Jimmy Creed. She also produced Midnight Lucky’s stakes-placed half-sister Songofthecity. Midnight Lucky’s granddam, Prospective Joy, was a stakes winning and stakes placed sprinter. By looking at the horses in her dam line you can see what gives her a great prowess for sprinter’s speed. Famous horses coming out of her female family 3-n are champion Bold Bidder, champion steeplechaser Top Bid and Group 1 Epsom Oaks winner Intrepidity.
Midnight Lucky’s dam sire is Citidancer. He won his first 3 races by a total of 36 lengths but his racing career was cut short after finishing 2nd in the G1 Jerome Handicap. In the breeding shed he sired 29 stakes winners, including the aforementioned G1 winner Hookedonthefeelin and multiple G1 winner and millionaire Urbane, who produced millionaire Suave. Her 2nd dam sire is Dixieland Band, who produced over 100 stakes winners and over 40 Graded Stakes winners. He is the broodmare sire of Kentucky Derby winners Monarchos and Street Sense, and also Melbourne Cup winner Delta Blues. On the track he was a multiple Grade 2 winner. Her third dam sire is the legendary sire Northern Dancer. When looking at Midnight Lucky’s dam sires, you can see why they pointed her to run a mile and an eighth-there is some stamina here. It has been shown though that her best distance is a mile or shorter. There is quite a bit of speed in her pedigree to suggest this, especially considering her sire and the mares in her dam line.
Final Analysis:
If Midnight Lucky were to win the 2014 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint it would be a monumental achievement. Even horses with long layoffs who won Breeders’ Cup championships such as Da Hoss and Secret Circle (another Bob Baffert trained horse) got in a prep race beforehand. The way I see it Midnight Lucky has a number of things working in her favor. One is that her trainer knows how to get horses to run big after long layoffs. Two is that she comes in to the race fresh. Three is that she ran a huge race breaking her maiden at Santa Anita. Finally, the Santa Anita track usually plays fast and she is one extremely fast race horse. She is up against a couple of very tough competitors in Judy the Beauty (over 1 million dollars in career earnings, raced well at Santa Anita) and Artemis Agrotera (has really seemed to have come in to her own in her last two-ultra impressive wins). Do I think Midnight Lucky wins this race. Most likely yes. From what I’ve seen her do in her 4 wins tells me she is truly special and I love Bob Baffert in this role. And if she does become a Breeders’ Cup Champion will she earn an Eclipse Award to go with it off of just 2 races for the year? She just might.
Regal Bloodlines 